I played some low stakes cash earlier in the year, one of my students was playing cash and I wanted to improve my game for coaching. I also wanted to show how your approach to poker can make all the difference: Here's is the link for reference
Monday, 16 December 2013
Tuesday, 10 December 2013
Using Flopzilla Tutorial: Hand Analysis
This post has been moved to http://24caliber.blogspot.co.nz/2014/09/flopzilla-tutorial.html
Thanks :)
Thanks :)
Wednesday, 28 August 2013
Link to "Ask the Pro" interview
In case anyone is interested in questions made by tiltbook users:)
http://tiltbook.com/AskThePRO/24Caliber/
http://tiltbook.com/AskThePRO/24Caliber/
Friday, 31 May 2013
4 Betting Calculations
I made a spreadsheet for this...makes life a lot easier: However here is a breakdown of how to figure out spots to 4 bet with my response to a 2+2 MTT thread:
//
Earlier this month on Day 2 of the WPT Montreal Main Event $3300, start with 30K ran my stack up to 90K to end Day 1. Christian Harder, Ebony Kenney, Michael Linster and a few other good player on my table. The player im playing against is Michael Linster who has been playing pretty aggressive and just doubled up a couple orbits ago by shoving 30bb on the turn with a straight draw flush draw getting looked up and getting there. Second level of the day blinds 800/1600 and im now down to 54K after getting coolered and losing a couple small pots, and its folded around to me in the SB and I get dealt ATos. I open to 3900 and Michael Linster 3bets me in the BB to 10,250. Best move for hero sitting on ~33bb???
//
You could run some numbers in excel in adjacent with pokerstove to see how profitable it is, here is the 3 scenarios;
3 bet folds
3 bet calls (and you win)
3 bet calls (and you lose)
E.g. with 16% 3 bet range and 8% calling range then:
[B]3 bet folds [/B]
3 bets 16% but only calls 8%..so 8/16 = 50% of the time he folds
When he folds you make 15000 (I've rounded the numbers to make it simpler and I do not know the ante's so I estimated 1k..so it is your 4000 raise + his 10000 3 bet + antes 1k)
50% of 15000 = [B]7500[/B]
Then 100-50 = 50% of the times he calls:
[B]3 bet calls (and you win)[/B]
AT has 33.81% equity vs 8% of hands...so 33.81% of the time you win the lot: 55000 (antes 1000 + your raise 4000 + his 3 bet 10000 + his call 40000)
Hence 50% of time he calls and you win 33.81% of the time
55000 * (50% of 33.81%) = [B]9295[/B]
[B]3 bet calls (and you lose) [/B]
AT has 33.81% equity vs 8% of hands...so 66.19% of the time you lose the lot : -50000 (the 4k you already put it is dead)
Hence 50% of time he calls and you lose 66.19% of the time
-50000 * (50% of 66.19%) = [B]-16550[/B]
7500 + 9295 - 16550 = 245 chips...basically break even.
Worth tweaking some of the numbers (e.g. your SB opening size and his 3 bet size or his 3 bet range or your holding) to see how that impacts the results - for instance 22 has about 4% better equity than ATo vs a 8% calling range and if you change his 3 bet to 20% then it becomes + 3196 chips.
This spot specifically I'd probably open bigger then jam over his 3 bet ;)
Update - just use ICMIZER in the future (lol)
//
Earlier this month on Day 2 of the WPT Montreal Main Event $3300, start with 30K ran my stack up to 90K to end Day 1. Christian Harder, Ebony Kenney, Michael Linster and a few other good player on my table. The player im playing against is Michael Linster who has been playing pretty aggressive and just doubled up a couple orbits ago by shoving 30bb on the turn with a straight draw flush draw getting looked up and getting there. Second level of the day blinds 800/1600 and im now down to 54K after getting coolered and losing a couple small pots, and its folded around to me in the SB and I get dealt ATos. I open to 3900 and Michael Linster 3bets me in the BB to 10,250. Best move for hero sitting on ~33bb???
//
You could run some numbers in excel in adjacent with pokerstove to see how profitable it is, here is the 3 scenarios;
3 bet folds
3 bet calls (and you win)
3 bet calls (and you lose)
E.g. with 16% 3 bet range and 8% calling range then:
[B]3 bet folds [/B]
3 bets 16% but only calls 8%..so 8/16 = 50% of the time he folds
When he folds you make 15000 (I've rounded the numbers to make it simpler and I do not know the ante's so I estimated 1k..so it is your 4000 raise + his 10000 3 bet + antes 1k)
50% of 15000 = [B]7500[/B]
Then 100-50 = 50% of the times he calls:
[B]3 bet calls (and you win)[/B]
AT has 33.81% equity vs 8% of hands...so 33.81% of the time you win the lot: 55000 (antes 1000 + your raise 4000 + his 3 bet 10000 + his call 40000)
Hence 50% of time he calls and you win 33.81% of the time
55000 * (50% of 33.81%) = [B]9295[/B]
[B]3 bet calls (and you lose) [/B]
AT has 33.81% equity vs 8% of hands...so 66.19% of the time you lose the lot : -50000 (the 4k you already put it is dead)
Hence 50% of time he calls and you lose 66.19% of the time
-50000 * (50% of 66.19%) = [B]-16550[/B]
7500 + 9295 - 16550 = 245 chips...basically break even.
Worth tweaking some of the numbers (e.g. your SB opening size and his 3 bet size or his 3 bet range or your holding) to see how that impacts the results - for instance 22 has about 4% better equity than ATo vs a 8% calling range and if you change his 3 bet to 20% then it becomes + 3196 chips.
This spot specifically I'd probably open bigger then jam over his 3 bet ;)
Update - just use ICMIZER in the future (lol)
A poker hand through my eyes (wrote this a few years ago)
Often when I am playing my coach will observe and provide advice, especially when late in a tournament. There are lots of free software programmes available online to aid this, such as Mikogo, which allows a user to observe another users desktop in real time, and Skype which allows for audio communication.
---
So we're 4.5 hours in; 25e rebuy online, around 300 players started and only 7 remain. It's a shorthanded tournament, maximum players per table: 6 - we're on the final table bubble and everyone's play has adjusted to reflect the situation. Some players are more passive on bubbles due to fear of not cashing, other players are more aggresive to take advantage of the threat of bubbling and build a stack capable of winning the tournament.
For me I like to review each bubble as a individual scenario, and determine whether I am playing to just cash or for a top spot. Then, adjust my playing style accordingly - this could depend on many factors; the payout structure, my stack size, the cash size of the bubble. In this game? everything aligns, first place only.
The final table payouts increase with every spot and as with most poker payout structures, it is heavily weighted towards the top; just over 2.6k euros for first place, followed by 1.6k for second, 1k third, 650 fourth, 400 fifth, and a pitiful 250 euros for 6th - we currently have from our original 75e investment (1 rebuy 1 add on, standard), 190e guaranteed for a top 7 place but as always, we aspire for more.
Our position is 3rd out of 7, we have circa. 80k chips and the big blind is 1600 with running antes of 200. We recently moved table as 8th and 9th position dropped, and are now 3 handed. On our table is the chip leader with just over 120k chips and 5th position with around 40k chips. Noone in the competition is short and the standard is high; 7th place on the other table has over 20 big blinds...this means it will most likely be a long and gruelling final table bubble.
We pick up KJ offsuit on the button and open with a standard raise of around 2.5x the big blind to 4000. 3 handed, KJ on the button is off considerable strength. The small blind folds, and the big stack in the big blind re-raises to 11000.
Not for 1 minute do we believe this raise and we aint green. We've recently joined the table so don't have much information on the player but our gut says he is raising because he wants control of the table...if we fold here, our first button raise since joining the table, we'll be percieved as weak and will have an uphill battle being constantly re-raised until the final table bubble passes, by which time our stack may be short and it will be a struggle to take the 1st position finish. We haven't got time to wait for premium cards, not 3 handed.
Best to make a stand now, while we have enough chips to do so and prior to him having solid information on the style we play. Best to die trying than bimble into an average finish, one 1st place equates to finishing 7th seventeen times (2600/150) and we get late enough in tournaments to know that the top spots are worth risking it all for. We flat call to take advantage of position - second to act postflop, this might prove beneficial later.
The flop brings K92 with 2 clubs. The pot is around 26k and the big stack instantly raises to 13k, leaving around 95k behind....not convinced that he has a many made holdings in his range.
Lets re-raise, just over 30k, leaves us around 40k behind - We have the best hand a good enough percentage of the time, not the place for slow playing. Lets take the pot now. Our re-raise also achieves another, and just as vital goal; We will be percieved as the table bully. While we are 3 handed it will be us that steals blinds and small pots, it will be us that pressures the bubble and tops up my stack ready for a glorious final table victory!!
He is obviously blinded with ambition similiar to our own and instantly shoves all in for another 60k which covers our stack, threatening the final table bubble.
Best click the timebank. Time to think.
The pot is twice the size of any other player in the tournament and we're on the final table bubble. This pot will define the tournament, and the victor standing tall above all others on the final table.
Just think what we could buy with 2.7k, 54 premium noshes...Got to stay focused, back to the hand.
We realise that not much time has been invested into considering our opponents possible holdings as we've been too engrossed in the situation, he doesn't have AA or AK or KK that's pretty certain - but what else could he have? K92...999 or 222 maybe? AQ AJ AT KQ KJ QQ JJ TT?? none feel right. Reading opponents holdings is usually one of our strongest areas in the pokerworld, here we are at aloss.
"Nudge" sent to mentor on msn, he's watching the game via his own poker software but has not been paying much attention as he is probably in 4 or 5 games himself....A quick summary of the hand sent hastely to him over msn including details of the preflop and postflop action. We explain;
"I think he is weak here, but I can't figure out what he might have...."
After a moments silence and a short analysis of the situation, he replies "TJcc", which, in normal tongue, translates to; Ten Jack of Clubs.
Genius! and deduced within a moment of process, we are in awe.
This makes perfect sense, TJcc is an ideal hand to re-raise preflop with and a perfect hand to bet out and re-shove post flop. He is drawing of course! Queen gives him a straight and any club a flush, the reason he is shoving is to provide additional equity to his hand (the chance of us folding).
After a moments glisten, we sigh with realisation. These situations occur so often and end in the same manner; a great call rewarded with nothing but bitterness brought by the persistently cunning and deviant poker gods - call here and we are just over 50% favourite to win. This pot will define the game. A 50/50 coin flip worth probably 2500 euros.
The pot odds are too good to fold now, we have commited too many chips to fold, we are convinced of his holding!
A rush of excitement fills our senses and our eyes widen, "call"...click
The poker programme reveals his cards in preparation for the showdown - TJcc as depicted.
52.5% plays 46.5% with a 1% margin for tie (QT)
The turn card is a low club
The river card...meaningless
We lose to his flush.
Once again foiled when so close to glory
As always, Forever bitter. A breathe exits in sigh and a moments taken for realisation as the table closes.
Halfway through the moment...."beep beep beep", refocused we scan the displays and the other games flash as to beg for attention. While pondering actions on each, we concurrently flicker a moments notice to the second display where two black aces stare back at us in the 50 freeze.
AA, mid position, aggressive table with short stacks on edge to the left and last 15 with 20 big blinds? Showtime.
KJ already long forgotten - lets just win one of these bad boys
I love plans
---
So we're 4.5 hours in; 25e rebuy online, around 300 players started and only 7 remain. It's a shorthanded tournament, maximum players per table: 6 - we're on the final table bubble and everyone's play has adjusted to reflect the situation. Some players are more passive on bubbles due to fear of not cashing, other players are more aggresive to take advantage of the threat of bubbling and build a stack capable of winning the tournament.
For me I like to review each bubble as a individual scenario, and determine whether I am playing to just cash or for a top spot. Then, adjust my playing style accordingly - this could depend on many factors; the payout structure, my stack size, the cash size of the bubble. In this game? everything aligns, first place only.
The final table payouts increase with every spot and as with most poker payout structures, it is heavily weighted towards the top; just over 2.6k euros for first place, followed by 1.6k for second, 1k third, 650 fourth, 400 fifth, and a pitiful 250 euros for 6th - we currently have from our original 75e investment (1 rebuy 1 add on, standard), 190e guaranteed for a top 7 place but as always, we aspire for more.
Our position is 3rd out of 7, we have circa. 80k chips and the big blind is 1600 with running antes of 200. We recently moved table as 8th and 9th position dropped, and are now 3 handed. On our table is the chip leader with just over 120k chips and 5th position with around 40k chips. Noone in the competition is short and the standard is high; 7th place on the other table has over 20 big blinds...this means it will most likely be a long and gruelling final table bubble.
We pick up KJ offsuit on the button and open with a standard raise of around 2.5x the big blind to 4000. 3 handed, KJ on the button is off considerable strength. The small blind folds, and the big stack in the big blind re-raises to 11000.
Not for 1 minute do we believe this raise and we aint green. We've recently joined the table so don't have much information on the player but our gut says he is raising because he wants control of the table...if we fold here, our first button raise since joining the table, we'll be percieved as weak and will have an uphill battle being constantly re-raised until the final table bubble passes, by which time our stack may be short and it will be a struggle to take the 1st position finish. We haven't got time to wait for premium cards, not 3 handed.
Best to make a stand now, while we have enough chips to do so and prior to him having solid information on the style we play. Best to die trying than bimble into an average finish, one 1st place equates to finishing 7th seventeen times (2600/150) and we get late enough in tournaments to know that the top spots are worth risking it all for. We flat call to take advantage of position - second to act postflop, this might prove beneficial later.
The flop brings K92 with 2 clubs. The pot is around 26k and the big stack instantly raises to 13k, leaving around 95k behind....not convinced that he has a many made holdings in his range.
Lets re-raise, just over 30k, leaves us around 40k behind - We have the best hand a good enough percentage of the time, not the place for slow playing. Lets take the pot now. Our re-raise also achieves another, and just as vital goal; We will be percieved as the table bully. While we are 3 handed it will be us that steals blinds and small pots, it will be us that pressures the bubble and tops up my stack ready for a glorious final table victory!!
He is obviously blinded with ambition similiar to our own and instantly shoves all in for another 60k which covers our stack, threatening the final table bubble.
Best click the timebank. Time to think.
The pot is twice the size of any other player in the tournament and we're on the final table bubble. This pot will define the tournament, and the victor standing tall above all others on the final table.
Just think what we could buy with 2.7k, 54 premium noshes...Got to stay focused, back to the hand.
We realise that not much time has been invested into considering our opponents possible holdings as we've been too engrossed in the situation, he doesn't have AA or AK or KK that's pretty certain - but what else could he have? K92...999 or 222 maybe? AQ AJ AT KQ KJ QQ JJ TT?? none feel right. Reading opponents holdings is usually one of our strongest areas in the pokerworld, here we are at aloss.
"Nudge" sent to mentor on msn, he's watching the game via his own poker software but has not been paying much attention as he is probably in 4 or 5 games himself....A quick summary of the hand sent hastely to him over msn including details of the preflop and postflop action. We explain;
"I think he is weak here, but I can't figure out what he might have...."
After a moments silence and a short analysis of the situation, he replies "TJcc", which, in normal tongue, translates to; Ten Jack of Clubs.
Genius! and deduced within a moment of process, we are in awe.
This makes perfect sense, TJcc is an ideal hand to re-raise preflop with and a perfect hand to bet out and re-shove post flop. He is drawing of course! Queen gives him a straight and any club a flush, the reason he is shoving is to provide additional equity to his hand (the chance of us folding).
After a moments glisten, we sigh with realisation. These situations occur so often and end in the same manner; a great call rewarded with nothing but bitterness brought by the persistently cunning and deviant poker gods - call here and we are just over 50% favourite to win. This pot will define the game. A 50/50 coin flip worth probably 2500 euros.
The pot odds are too good to fold now, we have commited too many chips to fold, we are convinced of his holding!
A rush of excitement fills our senses and our eyes widen, "call"...click
The poker programme reveals his cards in preparation for the showdown - TJcc as depicted.
52.5% plays 46.5% with a 1% margin for tie (QT)
The turn card is a low club
The river card...meaningless
We lose to his flush.
Once again foiled when so close to glory
As always, Forever bitter. A breathe exits in sigh and a moments taken for realisation as the table closes.
Halfway through the moment...."beep beep beep", refocused we scan the displays and the other games flash as to beg for attention. While pondering actions on each, we concurrently flicker a moments notice to the second display where two black aces stare back at us in the 50 freeze.
AA, mid position, aggressive table with short stacks on edge to the left and last 15 with 20 big blinds? Showtime.
KJ already long forgotten - lets just win one of these bad boys
I love plans
Two interesting hands deep in $200 CC Ongame:
I was railing my friend play a few Sundays ago Matt Adams...he's FT 2 GSOPS this year included one deal then win for 40k+ euros.
In this game he had 2 very interesting spots ITM of the CC, well worth a read - what do you think, calls or folds ?:)
The first hand he was sitting about 18/40 and the second 6/17, the villains are all solid TAG reg's.
***** History for hand T5-320947370-395 (TOURNAMENT: "ChampionChip $100,000", R-345-205, buy-in: $200) *****
Start hand: Mon May 13 00:39:38 BST 2013
Table: Table #42 [320947370] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM 2000/4000, ante: 400, Chips)
User: hero
Button: seat 5
Players in round: 8 (10)
Seat 1: _BoskoRock_ (150310)
Seat 2: KojG9 (138669)
Seat 4: KsenzovsLV (71691)
Seat 5: SBGstyle (110532)
Seat 6: p0ket00 (147353)
Seat 7: hero(118200)
Seat 8: 59Sound (66558)
Seat 10: inarcadia (72850)
p0ket00 posts ante 400
hero posts ante 400
59Sound posts ante 400
inarcadia posts ante 400
_BoskoRock_ posts ante 400
KojG9 posts ante 400
KsenzovsLV posts ante 400
SBGstyle posts ante 400
p0ket00 posts small blind (2000)
hero posts big blind (4000)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to hero: [Ks, As]
59Sound folds
inarcadia folds
_BoskoRock_ folds
KojG9 raises 8000 to 8000
KsenzovsLV raises 71291 to 71291 [all in]
SBGstyle folds
p0ket00 raises 144953 to 146953 [all in]
Hero?
***** History for hand T5-320947356-425 (TOURNAMENT: "ChampionChip $100,000", R-345-205, buy-in: $200) *****
Start hand: Mon May 13 02:05:05 BST 2013
Table: Table #28 [320947356] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM 4000/8000, ante: 800, Chips)
User: hero
Button: seat 6
Players in round: 8 (10)
Seat 1: EpicHor (404160)
Seat 2: MustCallNow (51624)
Seat 3: Bifta100 (46480)
Seat 4: 59Sound (295841)
Seat 5: hero (203272)
Seat 6: BabyGates (140839)
Seat 9: Butcher1981_ (159916)
Seat 10: Sizzlinbett (356844)
Butcher1981_ posts ante 800
Sizzlinbett posts ante 800
EpicHor posts ante 800
MustCallNow posts ante 800
Bifta100 posts ante 800
59Sound posts ante 800
hero posts ante 800
BabyGates posts ante 800
Butcher1981_ posts small blind (4000)
Sizzlinbett posts big blind (8000)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to hero: [Qh, Qs]
EpicHor raises 16000 to 16000
MustCallNow folds
Bifta100 folds
59Sound folds
hero raises 34860 to 34860
BabyGates raises 140039 to 140039 [all in]
Butcher1981_ folds
Sizzlinbett folds
EpicHor raises 387360 to 403360 [all in]
Hero?
In this game he had 2 very interesting spots ITM of the CC, well worth a read - what do you think, calls or folds ?:)
The first hand he was sitting about 18/40 and the second 6/17, the villains are all solid TAG reg's.
***** History for hand T5-320947370-395 (TOURNAMENT: "ChampionChip $100,000", R-345-205, buy-in: $200) *****
Start hand: Mon May 13 00:39:38 BST 2013
Table: Table #42 [320947370] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM 2000/4000, ante: 400, Chips)
User: hero
Button: seat 5
Players in round: 8 (10)
Seat 1: _BoskoRock_ (150310)
Seat 2: KojG9 (138669)
Seat 4: KsenzovsLV (71691)
Seat 5: SBGstyle (110532)
Seat 6: p0ket00 (147353)
Seat 7: hero(118200)
Seat 8: 59Sound (66558)
Seat 10: inarcadia (72850)
p0ket00 posts ante 400
hero posts ante 400
59Sound posts ante 400
inarcadia posts ante 400
_BoskoRock_ posts ante 400
KojG9 posts ante 400
KsenzovsLV posts ante 400
SBGstyle posts ante 400
p0ket00 posts small blind (2000)
hero posts big blind (4000)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to hero: [Ks, As]
59Sound folds
inarcadia folds
_BoskoRock_ folds
KojG9 raises 8000 to 8000
KsenzovsLV raises 71291 to 71291 [all in]
SBGstyle folds
p0ket00 raises 144953 to 146953 [all in]
Hero?
***** History for hand T5-320947356-425 (TOURNAMENT: "ChampionChip $100,000", R-345-205, buy-in: $200) *****
Start hand: Mon May 13 02:05:05 BST 2013
Table: Table #28 [320947356] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM 4000/8000, ante: 800, Chips)
User: hero
Button: seat 6
Players in round: 8 (10)
Seat 1: EpicHor (404160)
Seat 2: MustCallNow (51624)
Seat 3: Bifta100 (46480)
Seat 4: 59Sound (295841)
Seat 5: hero (203272)
Seat 6: BabyGates (140839)
Seat 9: Butcher1981_ (159916)
Seat 10: Sizzlinbett (356844)
Butcher1981_ posts ante 800
Sizzlinbett posts ante 800
EpicHor posts ante 800
MustCallNow posts ante 800
Bifta100 posts ante 800
59Sound posts ante 800
hero posts ante 800
BabyGates posts ante 800
Butcher1981_ posts small blind (4000)
Sizzlinbett posts big blind (8000)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to hero: [Qh, Qs]
EpicHor raises 16000 to 16000
MustCallNow folds
Bifta100 folds
59Sound folds
hero raises 34860 to 34860
BabyGates raises 140039 to 140039 [all in]
Butcher1981_ folds
Sizzlinbett folds
EpicHor raises 387360 to 403360 [all in]
Hero?
Hand from GUKPT Ports (£500+50)
Going to Vegas in a couple of weeks and there have a been a few nice live tournaments lately at so thought I'd get some live practise in and try my luck ;)
Had this hand from today, mixed thoughts on it - calling seems like a pretty big technical fail for my stack when it was such an easy table to accumulate chips...everyone was loose passive and folding way to much - if I were to imagine the VPIP/PFR of the players of the table, all of them except for villain in this hand (who was playing I'd say something like 25/15 - he was also one of the better live regs); would have been like 14/5 with fold to steal, 3 bet and/or C Bet about 10million % ha ;)
So the SS was 20k and I'm on around 38k now, villain just about has me covered - the blinds are 200/400 with antis 50.
Villain opens UTG to 1100, his range is pretty wide and I saw him open K3 suited from UTG earlier. I have 3 bet him a few times - one of the times he called 3 barrels on an AK3T2 board with A8 (no draws and OOP) and I had to muck my scraps, the other couple times he folded to continuation / turn bets, and once he 4 bet me pre flop and I folded.
I have 99 two positions after (9 handed) and elect to 3 bet for 2 reasons really; firstly because I know he is opening a relatively wide range and also doesn't like folding (so value) and secondly because the table is very honest, I will rarely get 4 bet but will likely get a few flats behind if I flat as well (then it is basically a set mine). On a different table or vs a different player I would be more inclined to flat...
It folds back to the villain [it should be noted that although his pre flop play certainly needs tweaking (although in live games and vs the type of players he is used to playing it has merit), his post flop game is pretty solid and has some spice] and he flats.
The flop brings 754 with 2 spades (74) and after he checks I bet 3.5k for value and to start building a pot, I certainly think he is capable of calling 3 streets pretty light. He flats, the turn brings a Jack to bring 2 flush draws and he checks.
I bet again, this time 6k to set the pot up for a value all in bet on the river of around 26k into around 24k...looking back on it I think I should have bet more like 7 or 8k so that the I am shipping under the pot on the river and giving him better odds/easier time to call. However he check-ships all in and here is where I am confused.
On a technical it an easy fold as the hand played obviously...but after he bet he just stared stiffly at the table, he looked up once or twice and made eye contact briefly but quickly looked back at the table. I've seen this a few times and I'm sure its the traits of a player that is bluffing ( I used to do it when I was making a big bluff in live games! If you want an example of what I mean...then check out this hand (7:11) and notice how Tom Dwan is acting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSqkhN9Rqk0 )
Next...what specific hands does he have that plays that way? I not going to list all the potential holdings I put him on (at least..not until I pump the numbers into flopzilla). He knows I am capable of 3 bet/3 barrelling light and his line doesn't really make sense with his style of play - I feel there is a lot more draw combinations than made hands; I'll have to play around with flopzilla and compare my pot odds against the equity / his ranges to get a better idea for the spot. I love flopzilla:D.
However my hand could be drawing to...0 outs, there is a lot he would need to protect against and also the table is so soft that risking my stack of 65 bigs; which was the average stack at the time, seems unnecessary and some sort of epic ICM fail, on the other hand winning that pot would put me way up in chips in a very soft field (70 left from around 100 runners) - this could be a great spot for it.
I did fold...but I'm looking forward to researching this hand more. If I figure from his range, my read and our history in pots together that it is profitable for me to call (in terms of chips), am I still making a losing $$$ call? If yes, then what is the line for BB's or edge vs table or position in tournament for when I can determine it is the most profitably line for me to call? and how much weight should I give live reads/history in my decision making process?
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