I made a spreadsheet for this...makes life a lot easier: However here is a breakdown of how to figure out spots to 4 bet with my response to a 2+2 MTT thread:
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Earlier this month on Day 2 of the WPT Montreal Main Event $3300, start with 30K ran my stack up to 90K to end Day 1. Christian Harder, Ebony Kenney, Michael Linster and a few other good player on my table. The player im playing against is Michael Linster who has been playing pretty aggressive and just doubled up a couple orbits ago by shoving 30bb on the turn with a straight draw flush draw getting looked up and getting there. Second level of the day blinds 800/1600 and im now down to 54K after getting coolered and losing a couple small pots, and its folded around to me in the SB and I get dealt ATos. I open to 3900 and Michael Linster 3bets me in the BB to 10,250. Best move for hero sitting on ~33bb???
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You could run some numbers in excel in adjacent with pokerstove to see how profitable it is, here is the 3 scenarios;
3 bet folds
3 bet calls (and you win)
3 bet calls (and you lose)
E.g. with 16% 3 bet range and 8% calling range then:
[B]3 bet folds [/B]
3 bets 16% but only calls 8%..so 8/16 = 50% of the time he folds
When he folds you make 15000 (I've rounded the numbers to make it simpler and I do not know the ante's so I estimated 1k..so it is your 4000 raise + his 10000 3 bet + antes 1k)
50% of 15000 = [B]7500[/B]
Then 100-50 = 50% of the times he calls:
[B]3 bet calls (and you win)[/B]
AT has 33.81% equity vs 8% of hands...so 33.81% of the time you win the lot: 55000 (antes 1000 + your raise 4000 + his 3 bet 10000 + his call 40000)
Hence 50% of time he calls and you win 33.81% of the time
55000 * (50% of 33.81%) = [B]9295[/B]
[B]3 bet calls (and you lose) [/B]
AT has 33.81% equity vs 8% of hands...so 66.19% of the time you lose the lot : -50000 (the 4k you already put it is dead)
Hence 50% of time he calls and you lose 66.19% of the time
-50000 * (50% of 66.19%) = [B]-16550[/B]
7500 + 9295 - 16550 = 245 chips...basically break even.
Worth tweaking some of the numbers (e.g. your SB opening size and his 3 bet size or his 3 bet range or your holding) to see how that impacts the results - for instance 22 has about 4% better equity than ATo vs a 8% calling range and if you change his 3 bet to 20% then it becomes + 3196 chips.
This spot specifically I'd probably open bigger then jam over his 3 bet ;)
Update - just use ICMIZER in the future (lol)
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Earlier this month on Day 2 of the WPT Montreal Main Event $3300, start with 30K ran my stack up to 90K to end Day 1. Christian Harder, Ebony Kenney, Michael Linster and a few other good player on my table. The player im playing against is Michael Linster who has been playing pretty aggressive and just doubled up a couple orbits ago by shoving 30bb on the turn with a straight draw flush draw getting looked up and getting there. Second level of the day blinds 800/1600 and im now down to 54K after getting coolered and losing a couple small pots, and its folded around to me in the SB and I get dealt ATos. I open to 3900 and Michael Linster 3bets me in the BB to 10,250. Best move for hero sitting on ~33bb???
//
You could run some numbers in excel in adjacent with pokerstove to see how profitable it is, here is the 3 scenarios;
3 bet folds
3 bet calls (and you win)
3 bet calls (and you lose)
E.g. with 16% 3 bet range and 8% calling range then:
[B]3 bet folds [/B]
3 bets 16% but only calls 8%..so 8/16 = 50% of the time he folds
When he folds you make 15000 (I've rounded the numbers to make it simpler and I do not know the ante's so I estimated 1k..so it is your 4000 raise + his 10000 3 bet + antes 1k)
50% of 15000 = [B]7500[/B]
Then 100-50 = 50% of the times he calls:
[B]3 bet calls (and you win)[/B]
AT has 33.81% equity vs 8% of hands...so 33.81% of the time you win the lot: 55000 (antes 1000 + your raise 4000 + his 3 bet 10000 + his call 40000)
Hence 50% of time he calls and you win 33.81% of the time
55000 * (50% of 33.81%) = [B]9295[/B]
[B]3 bet calls (and you lose) [/B]
AT has 33.81% equity vs 8% of hands...so 66.19% of the time you lose the lot : -50000 (the 4k you already put it is dead)
Hence 50% of time he calls and you lose 66.19% of the time
-50000 * (50% of 66.19%) = [B]-16550[/B]
7500 + 9295 - 16550 = 245 chips...basically break even.
Worth tweaking some of the numbers (e.g. your SB opening size and his 3 bet size or his 3 bet range or your holding) to see how that impacts the results - for instance 22 has about 4% better equity than ATo vs a 8% calling range and if you change his 3 bet to 20% then it becomes + 3196 chips.
This spot specifically I'd probably open bigger then jam over his 3 bet ;)
Update - just use ICMIZER in the future (lol)
