Going to Vegas in a couple of weeks and there have a been a few nice live tournaments lately at so thought I'd get some live practise in and try my luck ;)
Had this hand from today, mixed thoughts on it - calling seems like a pretty big technical fail for my stack when it was such an easy table to accumulate chips...everyone was loose passive and folding way to much - if I were to imagine the VPIP/PFR of the players of the table, all of them except for villain in this hand (who was playing I'd say something like 25/15 - he was also one of the better live regs); would have been like 14/5 with fold to steal, 3 bet and/or C Bet about 10million % ha ;)
So the SS was 20k and I'm on around 38k now, villain just about has me covered - the blinds are 200/400 with antis 50.
Villain opens UTG to 1100, his range is pretty wide and I saw him open K3 suited from UTG earlier. I have 3 bet him a few times - one of the times he called 3 barrels on an AK3T2 board with A8 (no draws and OOP) and I had to muck my scraps, the other couple times he folded to continuation / turn bets, and once he 4 bet me pre flop and I folded.
I have 99 two positions after (9 handed) and elect to 3 bet for 2 reasons really; firstly because I know he is opening a relatively wide range and also doesn't like folding (so value) and secondly because the table is very honest, I will rarely get 4 bet but will likely get a few flats behind if I flat as well (then it is basically a set mine). On a different table or vs a different player I would be more inclined to flat...
It folds back to the villain [it should be noted that although his pre flop play certainly needs tweaking (although in live games and vs the type of players he is used to playing it has merit), his post flop game is pretty solid and has some spice] and he flats.
The flop brings 754 with 2 spades (74) and after he checks I bet 3.5k for value and to start building a pot, I certainly think he is capable of calling 3 streets pretty light. He flats, the turn brings a Jack to bring 2 flush draws and he checks.
I bet again, this time 6k to set the pot up for a value all in bet on the river of around 26k into around 24k...looking back on it I think I should have bet more like 7 or 8k so that the I am shipping under the pot on the river and giving him better odds/easier time to call. However he check-ships all in and here is where I am confused.
On a technical it an easy fold as the hand played obviously...but after he bet he just stared stiffly at the table, he looked up once or twice and made eye contact briefly but quickly looked back at the table. I've seen this a few times and I'm sure its the traits of a player that is bluffing ( I used to do it when I was making a big bluff in live games! If you want an example of what I mean...then check out this hand (7:11) and notice how Tom Dwan is acting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSqkhN9Rqk0 )
Next...what specific hands does he have that plays that way? I not going to list all the potential holdings I put him on (at least..not until I pump the numbers into flopzilla). He knows I am capable of 3 bet/3 barrelling light and his line doesn't really make sense with his style of play - I feel there is a lot more draw combinations than made hands; I'll have to play around with flopzilla and compare my pot odds against the equity / his ranges to get a better idea for the spot. I love flopzilla:D.
However my hand could be drawing to...0 outs, there is a lot he would need to protect against and also the table is so soft that risking my stack of 65 bigs; which was the average stack at the time, seems unnecessary and some sort of epic ICM fail, on the other hand winning that pot would put me way up in chips in a very soft field (70 left from around 100 runners) - this could be a great spot for it.
I did fold...but I'm looking forward to researching this hand more. If I figure from his range, my read and our history in pots together that it is profitable for me to call (in terms of chips), am I still making a losing $$$ call? If yes, then what is the line for BB's or edge vs table or position in tournament for when I can determine it is the most profitably line for me to call? and how much weight should I give live reads/history in my decision making process?
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