Hero or Donkey

4T vs Q6 - mad man or hero

So this is a pretty interesting hand, we're very early in the tournament (everyone has around 7.5k) and a guy raises from 1 after under the gun to 200 (big blind 50), one other player calls and I call with Q6 off suit on the button.
At this point I don't have much info on either of the players except that they haven't played many hands yet in the tourny, so I figure them both for pretty strong starting hands.

The flop brings 6c7c8s pot 675

The original raiser leads out for 350. The other guy folds and I call, I figure at the moment he has either AK or an overpair (would have expected him to bet more with an overpair though, like 600 or 550).

The next turn brings 5d(6c7c8s) pot 1375.

He bets again 350 and I (figuring him for an overpair, and representing a straight, 2 pair or trips myself) raise to 900. It's enough for him to call now and then fold a bigger bet on the river - if he re-raises then I know he has a 9 (e.g. 99 or A9) or trips (e.g. 88), I could also spike out with a 6 or a queen on the river, in which case I would change my river size bet into a value bet that he would be more likely to call, like another 900 rather than 1800-2000 that I'm planning at the moment.

He calls which isn't too unexpected, and the river is 7d(5d6c7c8s) - this card doesn't change much, although I would have liked another club to come down just to make his overpair even weaker or obviously a 6/queen.

He checks and I bet out 1800, and he calls - that was unexpected. The dealer requests we show our cards but we both seem embarassed to do so lol, I show my Q6 for 2 pair and he shows 4T suited (diamonds not clubs) for the bottom end of the straight.

The table is pretty dumbfounded and I'm gutted about my mis-read (not even close, the only hand I considered he may have for the straight was 99 or A9 but I'm sure the betting patterns would have been different if he did have those holdings and I would have figured it out) - this is the first major bluff / misread that has failed for me in terms of chips relative to my stack size since I've been out here - punished for it to, over 1/3 my stack:(

Anyway so I think about the hand for a bit after the game - I went out a few hands later (my final hand was a showdown K8 vs A9 i pushed all in on the button, only had just over 1000 left and big blind was 200, unfortunately neither of us hit and his ace high held up), another interesting hand that I've posted below is how I was crippled down to the 1000 odd stack(*)

So yea I was thinking about the hand on my way to the hotel room (moved into Imperial Palace now...they charge me for internet use! so I'm writing it all in notepad and gonna paste it into the blog when completed for minimum cost), and; just a silly side story, I go into the elevator thinking about the hand - press floor 12, the door closes, nothing happens, the door opens, I walk back out and realise I haven't gone anywhere, the door closes again, I watch the number display above the elevator go all the way up to 12, then back down to 1, and then get back in the elevator and press 12 again. lol.

Anyway back to the poker hand, so if you take a different perspective on the hand (i.e. my oppenants) he actually played the hand well, granted the preflop raise was a bit crazy but there's nothing wrong with mixing up what cards your open with from time to time especially when the blinds are small relative to your stack and people don't have any info on you / table is tight.

From his perspective, he raised early position with 4T suited and got 2 callers, (he is thinking now, that the 2 callers think that HE is holding either big pair or AK/AQ and them something medium strength/fishy), flop is 678 so he has the double-ended straight draw (5 or 9) and bets it out with a half pot continuation bet, which gives away very little information.
Gets 1 caller who he most likely suspects is fishing for a hand (e.g. straight or flush - trips or overpair such as 66, 99 or TT would re-raise now); then he hits the straight on the turn and bets again the same amount - this is just a value bet but again doesn't give away much information. Then he gets re-raised, and has to suspect that his oppenant may have hit the straight aswell (but the better end); still worth calling though as a 9 will give him a very well disguised higher straight (value bet galor), and also his bottom end straight might still be the best hand at the moment (remember his oppenant, i.e. me, has seen him raise preflop, post flop and turn so far, so must figure him for a strong pre flop holding - like an overpair).

The river pairs the board but doesn't complete the flush, so he checks - no point betting here as he will only get called by a better hand or potentially put himself into a tricky situation if faced against a big re-raise - checking controls the pot size and shows weakness, his oppenant (me) then bets 1800.
Looks like a value bet but he has to call as he knows that his oppenant (me) won't put him on the straight and there's a good chance he could be bluffing (with for example missed flush draw) due to the weak play on the turn / river (just called a re-raise then checked), or he could have a weaker holding than the straight and believe that he is value betting (although not many hands fall into this catorgory when the river pairs the board, as that would make trips a full house and null out any 2 pairs that don't include a 7, like 86, only A7 or A8 would be plausible but that doesn't align with the re-raise on the turn, maybe TT)

So did he play the hand well and to a style similiar to that of how I play? I probably would have played it exactly the same in his position (assuming I made the same loose preflop raise), maybe I would have checked the turn to induce a bluff; or is it that he is just a lucky donkey and his actions were not dictated by deep thought, analysis, experience and calculation, but just plain old luck lol....I wanted to speak to him in the break and find out a bit more about his poker playing career but I didn't even make it to the break geez due to this hand, and the hand I'm about to write about below, so I'll never know if he is a good player or lucky donkey, oh well!!

(*) Anyway this is the hand I mentioned before that put me down to around 1200 or whatever chips (its the 85$ noon game at Ceasers by the way)
9T vs TT
I've lost a few chips already from the Q6 hand, but made a few back just from raising/continuation betting and am on around 5k chips now. I am still good relative to the blinds which are 75-150 (more than 30 big blinds)
It folds round to me one before the button and I raise up to 400 with 9T suited, i've played quite a few hands but the small blind has just sat down and hence we don't have any info on each other (he literally just turned up for the tourny, you can buy in anytime before the break - they have stacks being blinded out ready for people to buy-into).

Everyone folds apart from the new small blind who calls the 400

Flop 678 rainbow pot is 950

He bets out 900. What a dream flop. I flopped the nut straight, there's no flush draw, and he is betting into me, big. I could raise here but I obviously don't want to scare him off, to be honest I don't have a clue what he has at this point - maybe A8 or an overpair, or 2 pair or trips, or he could just be bluffing. I have no info on him and all his pot-size bet tells me is that he likes his hand but isn't amazingly confident with it.
Best to just call and see what he does on the turn, I have position on him also and the pot is already getting big due to his bet so it is a good opportunity for slow-playing.

Turn T(678) pot is 2750
The turn card also puts a flush draw on the board but I can't remember which suit (I think it was hearts, I know is that it wasn't the suit I had lol) but I'm not too worried about the flush draw at this stage.
He bets out 2200, which is over half my stack (I have like 3500 chips?). I should just push all-in here but for some reason I think there is a tiny chance he may fold as he doesn't look amazingly confident with his hand - in fact he looks quite nervous and is playing with his cards and chips a lot. However I'm 100% sure he will push me all on the river if I just flat call now (its a lot easier to push all-in rather than call all-in as there is a chance your oppenant will fold). So for the extra potential 1200 or so chips I think it's worth it and after a litttttle bit of hollywood, I just call.
The T wasn't a great card for me obviously as if he has a 9 (e.g. A9, 99 or 98 or ultimate worst case scenario J9) then we are now splitting the pot or I'm losing. I still have the second nuts however so thats a positive.

River 6(T678) pot is 7350
The 6 was also suited and put the 3rd flush card on the board. This could possible be the worst card in the world for me (in fact the flop was awesome, the turn was bad and the river was horrific).
He looks a lot more happy and confident now, and pushes all with a smug manorism, he's also chatting and laughing with other people at the table now while I'm thinking. This is a bad sign, I can't fold here with the ridicolous pot odds surely (1200 to win 9500 odd!?) but....I'm convinced I'm beat :(

If you review the whole hand from scratch, by the river card; my "nuts on the flop" straight is not actually beating a lot of hands that would have made it this far with all the betting rounds - but is losing to a lot! A flush, a higher straight, a full house. It's beating an out right bluff and maybe a 2 pair (e.g. 78) or overpair but only jacks (he surely wudda raised pre flop with QQ KK or AA, probably wudda raised pre flop with JJ also)
Also my physical tell on him is screaming that he is super happy with the situation (which is an epic change from the turn were he seemed quite concerned and etchy)
How can I fold such good odds though?? Well I think about it for a while and fold anyway, he shows TT for the full house...kinda glad with my play although I've still only got just over 1k left. I definately wouldn't fault anyone for raising all in on the turn or calling the river bet.

So that left me with like 1200 or so chips (I got a walk on my big blind later that round but had to fold my small blind to an early position raiser, although he probably had 4T suited lol) and next hand on the button it folds round to me so I go all in with K8 - the big blind called with A9 - obviously I lost the showdown :( ha!

Another fustrating tournament, at least it gives me a few hours to (write this blog post) and prepare for the next tourny / sort out my new hotel room. My next game is at 7pm (Ceasers Palace 160$, which is about 4 hours from now so I'm gonna have a quick power nap). Will be dreaming about aces...zzzZzzZ

Speaking of aces, yesterday I went out the 160$ when I hit QQQ (with AQ) and my oppenant hit KKKQQ (with KK) quite early in the tournament, so I played in the 120$ at the Venecian. It's nice there, smells like perfume - anyway we started on 7500 and I'm up to about 12k around 3 hours in, the blinds are 600-1200: the tourny is kinda turbo-esk.

A super tight guy raises from 1 off under the gun to 3600 with another 15k behind, and I know I need premium to play, I check my cards and whoopedy-do premium aces. This is a perfect time to just call as the pot is already big, there are no big stacks who will have implied odds behind me to call with fish hands that crack aces (e.g. TJ suited or small pair) and earlier in the tournament I had aces and just went all-in preflop an got a caller. My oppenant might have remembered that and now assume I have a lesser pair like TT, JJ or AQ.

Everyone else folds and the flop comes K64 rainbow, perfect. He bets 4600 and I go all-in for 8k, he can't fold now the pot odds are ridicolous. He calls with 77 and the next card (the turn) is a 7. Unbelievable. Statistically I think that is the worst beat I've had since I've been here (92% to win?)

Gotta stick with it though - the cards will hold up soon enuff! anyway power nap then Ceasers for the 160, night.