Mitigating Loses without Comprising Value

Here's an interesting poker hand I thought I would write about:

It was from earlier tonight when I was playing cash on Full Tilt, I was sat at 4 tables during this hand all 0.25c BB stakes:

Fortunately I use Hold'Em Manager now (awesome tool highly recommended) so I can give the exact details of the hand using the Hold'Em Manger replayer; usually I write hands from memory so some details are blurry - although granted I think I have a good talent for remembering poker hands! ;)

So we are in an 8 man Cash table, small blind 0.10c and big blind 0.25c

I started on $25 and have worked up to $46.89 after about an hours play (currently on 4 separate tabs)

It folds round to me and I do my standard raise of 0.85c on the cut off with 67cc. I have a tight table and raising with hands like 67cc is good for a long list of reasons....to ensure I get paid of when I do have a premium hand, to hit a disguised monster on the flop for a premium payday, to take advantage of position, etc. etc.

A tight player on the button with $28.89 re raises to $2.50 dollars and the small/big blind fold.

I'm very confident at this point that he has a top 5 holding, minimum JJ or AQ, but most likely AK / KK / AA. He has been very tight and a straight forward player.

Folding here is not a bad option, 67cc is not a great holding and is probably about 20-25% vs AA? But it is a very easy hand to fold post flop, whereas AA is not. So if I don't hit a big hand I can easily fold, whereas if I do hit a big hand then I doubt he can easily fold (hence implied odds). At this moment in time I expect I have a much better read on his hand, than him on mine. Just as importantly, we are both deepstacked relative to the blinds, so I elect to call and hope for a fishy flop for a big payday.

The flop brings 8KQ, all clubs.

I check my made flush, expecting him to bet out his top 5 hand and then I can re-raise him all in. Betting out myself would also be a good play as it is highly likely he will re raise which aligns with our objective (to get all the chips in the middle) - it's generally bad practise to slow play out of position.

He bets out the pot, $5.35 leaving $21 behind and I instantly go all-in (which covers his stack) knowing he has a high pair that he won't fold.

He calls and shows AA, with the ace of clubs included

The turn brings J clubs to give him a higher flush....so I lose the pot.

Seem's like a pretty straight forward mug-off, and the play cannot be faulted (got all my chips in ahead and it's a cash game so losing all the chips is not an issue, in a MTT it might not be worth the risk as you can't rebuy into the tournament).

However, although a good play - it could have been changed into an excellent play (and in the process potentially saved me $20)

Instead of re raising all in on the flop, I could have just called to the see the turn and then if another club card came (and if he continued betting with strength) folded accordingly. This strategy only has two flaws which are:

1) It allows him the opportunity to bluff me if another club card appears on the turn. If he bets into the turn representing a high club I would have to fold (although I don't think this would be an issue as I did not believe the player to be capable of making such a bluff)

2) If the turn card brings a club and he doesn't have a club card, he might not put any more chips into the pot that he would have put it on the flop, impacting our potential profits

However in both of the 2 scenarios listed above, I do not lose the additional $20 he has behind.

If the same scenario occurs, and I just call his bet on the flop as above - except this time the turn card is not a club, then in most cases he would still raise or call an all in bet with his premium hand AA KK AK (which we are sure he has - it's very doubtful he knows out holding).

In which case, I have a 2x more chance of winning (or more accurately 1/2 chance of losing) because the turn card is not a club. He only has 1 chance to hit a club, which is on the river - not 2 chances, which would be on the turn or the river.

So by just calling the flop bet and not re-raising all in, I change my options from:

Winning his whole stack or losing his stack 31.5% of the time (chances of a club on the turn or the river), to

Winning his whole stack, losing only my flop bet or losing his stack 16% of the time (chances of a club on the river)

*Assuming the amount of times he bluffs into a club on the turn and the amount times he checks down a club on the turn are equal and don't impact the hand

Obviously the latter being a lot more profitable (or seeing as we are always getting mugged off, a lot less expensive).

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Similiar situations to this occur very often in Poker and are often overlooked / disregarded, for this play to be effective it has to be complemented with a solid read on the opponent (in this case it was quite obviously he had a big hand).

Another major factor that should be considered when faced with a situation like this is the position in the hand, if you will have to act first or last after the next card.

In this scenario I was out of position, which gave me the disadvantage and allowed more justification for re-raising all in on the flop (takes away the disadvantage of being out of position because there are no more actions to take place after a player has gone all in) - the top players are always aware of their position on the table and who will act in front/behind them when the cards drop, this has major influence in the choice of which cards they will play and which they won't - worth considering!

So hopefully this is a lesson learnt and next time we will able to lower the risk of being outdrawn, without comprimising our premium value ;)

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