ipoker 10k rebuy final 2 tables, raiser had solid stats, this was possibly a very crucial hand in the tourny and had a good discussion about it with a friend of mine, wanted ur guys opinions on the next step and why/
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $3,000(BB) Replayer
SB ($33,866)
Hero ($74,168)
UTG ($32,352)
UTG+1 ($71,562)
UTG+2 ($35,413)
CO ($51,937)
BTN ($90,525)
Dealt to Hero
: 
:fold, UTG+1 raises to $7,000, fold, fold, fold, fold,
wwyd? why?
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My response:
I don't like shoving here - as you said he was a tight player which makes me think he will only call off a better hand such as TT+ (or AQ/AK for a race)
Against a looser player I would shove, as I feel they would have a large opening/calling range (better equity for you) and that a tight player would not 4 bet light in the current (complicated!) situation.
There is a lot of interesting points about his raise here:
1) He is raising your blind (i.e. you and him have same stack size which appears to be around 3rd to 6th position), he may feel like your the best blind to steal as you are less inclined to be involved in pot with him near the FT bubble whilst there are shorter stacks at the table, or counter to that he may feel that way himself, and hence will only raise your blind with premium...which leads me to
2) His bet size is 7000 which is just under 2.5x big blinds. This is a very strange size as it is quite inviting for others (including yourself) to call or reshove on. I feel that if he only wanted to play a pot with a premium but not monster hand against your stack (e.g. he has a hand range in the AQ or TT area) he would bet a larger amount to protect his hand such as 3x (9k) or even 4x bb (12k), especially as he is a tight player who has solid stats.
7000 to me feels like either a cheap attempt to steal (or weakish holding like KJ), or a monster inviting a 3 bet shove. By putting in 7000 I feel he is not commited to a re-shove made by any of the players behind (if the smallest stack behind him shoved it would make the bet 35k total, which is 28k more for him to call). He may have planned this intentionally or he may not even be aware of this.
3) He is a tight player with solid stats and raising from an early position. This generally means strength. His early position raise leaves him vulnerable to a reshove from a lot of players behind him on the table (including you) so technically he is representing strong hand.
Seeing as you have 99 and your 6 handed facing a single raise, there is a good chance you have the best hand. Like I said before, I feel like your deep enough and the situation is right to warrant a re-raise without shoving, and somewhere around 22-23k feels right to me. By betting 22-23k it means:
If he re-shoves you can fold, based on the information you have given that he has solid stats and is a tight player - I don't feel like he would 4 bet light and most likely your 99 is behind or racing. This would leave you in 50k which is a good position in the tournament.
If he calls then the pot will be around 50k, and you will have around 50k behind which means you can (based on the flop texture) either shove the flop or check-fold the flop, due to the size of the pot the disadvantage of playing the flop out of position is lessened for you (because your either shoving or folding)
There are 2 unknowns though that might impact my thought process however:
1) Your image at the table
2) How regular his pre flop bet size raises are
Being a massive fish I would probably make the same raise with a wide range of hands here, feeling that there is a good chance he will fold to a 3 bet and that you will still have a good stack if you have to fold to a 4 bet.
Hope
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Someone replied:
Just to point out, theres nothing that says hes tight, just that he has solid stats.. As in a solid player. So to say 7k is an odd raise size is wrong. It is standard for a good player to open this size with his whole range.
No 'solid' player would open more with the weaker part of his range to protect his hand unless hed decide the table was so poor it was more profitable to play exploitably and vary the raise size with the strength of his hand.
Also, a shove will almost always be profitable against a decent player unless hes extremely tight.
From fpppro.com's fold equity calculator, going off a calling range of AQ, TT+
Effective Stack: 71000 (How much you push)
Estimated Equity %: 37% (How much equity you have when called)
Pot Size: 15550 (Current pot size) assuming 150 ante
Facing Bet? 7000 (Size of bet you are shoving over)
Villain must fold at least 50% of the time.
So he only needs to fold half the time to make it profitable. Given hes solid, and should know when to apply pressure in the later stages of a game, then hes going to be opening a lot wider than than just his calling range.
I would never normally 3bet/fold with 23BB, but you could make a case for it ICM wise I suppose.
It seems pointless to do it with a hand as strong as 9s though when youre just bluffing preflop.
He flats so rarely, so you may as well do it with a hand with blockers (some sort of Ace..etc, or some trash QJo, K10o..etc.
Without the benefit of more stats over a large sample, then Id say Shove > flat >>> 3bet/fold.
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My response:
I think you are missing some important factors with the fold equity analyse.
Even if it is a positive EV situation for chips (which would make it a very reasonable shove in a cash game), it may not be a positive EV situation for $ as you have to consider other factors, such as the payout structure, your position in the tournament and the standard of play in the tournament.
For example if you were to take the different scenarios and the potential payday from each, we can assume which course of action is most profitable, seeing as we can't predict the future I have estimated and rounded the numbers (these numbers could definately be open to discussion but I just want to get the idea across, I assumed that if you have more chips you would win more as the payout structure is top heavy)
Case 1: You 3 bet shove
a) 3 bet shove, he calls and you win
New chip count: 150k
Estimated average Pay Day: $2100
So I'm saying if this happens (you 3 bet shove, he calls and you win the showdown) then you will on average win $2100 in the tournament.
Assuming you win the showdown on average 33% of the time (I'm estimating that you win half the flips 99 vs aq and ak, and 1 out of 5 times vs an overpair 99 vs TT+) and he only calls your shove 50% of the time, then your total average for this scenario is:
Total average payday is:
33% of 2100 = $700
50% of 700 = $350
b) 3 bet shove, he calls and you lose
New chip count: 3k
Average Pay Day: $240
So I'm saying if this happens (you 3 bet shove, he calls and you lose the showdown) then you will on average win $240 in the tournament.
Assuming you lose the showdown on average 66% of the time (I'm estimating that you lose half the flips 99 vs aq and ak, and 4 out of 5 times vs an overpair 99 vs TT+) and he only calls your shove 50% of the time, then your total average for this scenario is:
Total average payday is:
66% of 240 = $160
50% of 160 = $80
c) 3 bet shove and he folds
New chip count: 85k
Average Pay Day: $1300
Assuming he calls the remainding 50% of the time:
Total average payday is:
50% of 1300 = $650
So your total average payday for 3 bet shoving is (by my estimate):
Total average payday for case 1, 3 bet shoving preflop:
350 + 80 + 650
= $1080
Case 2: You 3 bet to 20k
a) 3 bet raise he folds
New chip count: 85k
Average Pay Day: $1300
Assuming this happens 40% of the time
Total average payday is:
40% of 1300 = $520
b) 3 bet raise he shoves you fold
New chip count: 50k
Average Pay Day: $1000
Assuming this happens 30% of the time
Total average payday is:
30% of 1000 = $300
c) 3 bet raise he calls
For the sake of argument, I am going to say that 50% of the time you shove the flop, he folds and you win the pot, and 50% of the time you check-fold the flop and lose the pot.
Shove the flop, he folds and you win the pot:
New chip count: 100k
Average Pay day: $1700
50% of 1700 = $850
Check-fold the flop, and lose the pot:
New chip count: 50k
Average Pay day: $1000
50% of 1000 = $500
Sub-total average payday = 850 + 500 = $1350
Assuming this happens 30% of the time
Total average payday is:
30% of 1350 = $405
So your total average payday for 3 bet raising to 20k preflop is (by my estimate):
Total average payday for Case 2, 3 bet raising 20k preflop:
520 + 300 + 405 = $1225
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Case 1: You 3 bet shove $ EV: $1080
Case 2: You 3 bet to 20k $ EV: $1225
So this questions whether a positive EV situation for chips represents a positive EV situation for $, but this is just one factor.
Maybe if Rip felt the standard of play in the tournament was very high and everyone was outplaying him, then he may have taken the shove using the thought process:
When playing against players better than you, try to enhance the luck factor (e.g. bigger pots preflop)
When playing against players weaker than you, try to reduce the luck factor (e.g. smaller pots preflop)
I do this especially heads up in a tournament if I'm playing a person who has a lot better stats than me on sharkscope and there is a few $1000 up for grabs between 1st and 2nd place (cheap I know..but I don't would rather gamble for big money than get outplayed, although its obviously good experience I would rather find a cheaper opportunity to improve)
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So the point I'm trying to make is that there is lots of factors to consider when making a decision (hand strength, stack sizes, opponents, standard of play, foresight, payout structure, etc.), and I feel the difference between a good poker player and a great poker playing is being able to identify and weigh which factor's are most important in each given situation, then make the right decision based on these factors.
It's not somewhere I am at, but it's somewhere I want to be! I can't process all the information in time (especially with the lack of timebanks) and the accuracy of my analyse is hopefully becoming more accurate/faster over time with experience/study - this just my opinion
Another plan is to just run really well lol
Steve
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