Hand Discussion 2 "JJ 60 BB deep"

So ok this is not my hand though but a discussion of a friend of mine. He has no stats. Ill give his thoughts and my thoughts but would like to hear yours. I know I get a lot of these situations myself and I also know that in these situations its often a tough spot and thise situations definately needs fine tuning on my part.

so WWYD?

Seat 1: Sveden House (3,710)
Seat 2: DoyleBrownStain (10,171)
Seat 3: scumm3r (4,250)
Seat 4: Hero (9,682)
Seat 5: weebettle1 (3,140)
Seat 6: Dagon84 (5,550)
Seat 7: Predator2211 (6,380)
Seat 8: malin_j (3,195)
Seat 9: crakovik (5,805)
weebettle1 posts the small blind of 80
Dagon84 posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Js Jh]
Predator2211 folds
malin_j folds
crakovik folds
Sveden House has 15 seconds left to act
Sveden House folds
DoyleBrownStain raises to 480
scumm3r folds
Hero calls 480
weebettle1 folds
Dagon84 folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 8s 5s]
DoyleBrownStain bets 875
Hero calls 875
*** TURN *** [2s 8s 5s] [8c]
DoyleBrownStain bets 1,499
Hero calls 1,499
*** RIVER *** [2s 8s 5s 8c] [9c]
DoyleBrownStain bets 3,256
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero folds
Uncalled bet of 3,256 returned to DoyleBrownStain
DoyleBrownStain mucks
DoyleBrownStain wins the pot (5,948)

Heros thoughts/question: after I doubled him up with my JJ vs his KK ive seen no showdowns execpt 1 decent pot which he won with AA. Could I hve fold the turn

My thoughts: I would prefer raising flop to about 1899 or so. This way youll
A) get a fold which is good imo
B ) get a call which gives you the opportunity to use potcontrol on turn and see a free river cause most opponents will check their hands 2 ya after B/C a flop
C) get a raise, this way agains a tight player which he assumes he is will more than likely have U beat than have a AsXx FD.

at least U have a more clear ideay where U stand

Another player adds: If ur going to call turn the 9 river is an obv blank so ull have to call river aswell

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My Response:

Not a nice scenario

Heres my thoughts:

I agree that you should be re-raising the flop (or preflop, although in this scenario I like the flat pre because of the stack sizes and position) to define your hand / become the aggresor...flatting all the way is very passive and gives you no info on your opponent and also allows for him to hit free cards if he did have e.g. AK or AQ (esp of spades suit)

If he shoves after your re-raise on the flop or preflop then you need to seriously consider your options based on what information you have on him and the pot odds/etc (i.e. is he capable of making this shove with a bluff or semi bluff, e.g. AK with 1 spade and how likely is it that he has an overpair bigger than JJ?)

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Regarding your river dilema:
If we review the hand from his perspective (seeing as we don't know what he had let's assume he had KK, although his holding doesn't necessarily matter as much as the thought process behind it):

He bets pre and you call...not much information on your hand yet expect that it is unlikely you have AA or KK or AK as you didn't re raise him pre.

The flop comes and it has a flush (spades) and straight (could be holding 67 or 34 with or without 1 spade) draw, he does a standard C bet of around 3/4 pot - this doesn't really give away much info about his hand and charges appropriately the fishy flop - he can assume at this point his KK is most likely the best hand as it's 1v1.

You call his bet, but you don't re raise him. This probably means to him that you have most likely a draw (flush or straight) or a small part of the flop...e.g. a single pair (87 or 77 or 54, etc.). There's also a slight chance you have a big part of the flop (e.g. set or made flush) and am slow playing it, the chances of this are obviously lower as its so rare you flop a set and it is only 1 opponent And you would be more inclined to re raise on such a dangerous flop.

The turn comes and doesn't complete any draws but pairs the 8.
Seeing as you didn't re raise the flop and the turn card does not complete any of the draws (which he most likely put you on after your call on the flop), he value bets again to protect his hand.
You call his turn bet again, but don't re raise him. At this point he must be concerned because you are willing to persue the pot despite it getting expensive - and should be considering that it is a lot less likely you are on a draw (more likely at least a semi draw e.g. an additional pair to the 88 and a flush draw) and tread carefully on the river - he only has 2 pair and there is 1 pair already on the board, you could feasibly be holding an 8 (e.g. 87), I doubt he has put you on 99 TT or JJ at this point as he would have expected you to raise by now! (nothing majorly wrong with flatting thus mixing up your game to trick your opponents - keep em guessing!)

The river comes and doesn't complete the flush draw but does complete a straight draw (5-67-89)

Its a very strange bet he makes on the river: If he has a hand like KK or AA its quite a thin value bet as if he believes you have a missed draw it's very unlikely you are going to call a 3rd big bet for a big portion of your stack with a weaker holding than his assumed AA or KK - it would make a lot more sense for him to check-call here with an overpair (or make a smaller "blocker" bet e.g. 1-1.5k) as it controls the pot size (which is now pretty big) and allows you the opportunity to make a mistake...i.e. pay him off with a weaker holding or bluff (people seem a lot more inclined to bluff missed draws as they feel its the only way they can win the pot)

Which makes me think he has here either a very strong hand, or a very weak hand and is hoping you missed your draw ("aswell").

So I believe his holdings could be:

22, 55, 88, 89 or 99 for a full house / quads - These hands he could certainly bet out the river and would align with the betting to date (88 least likely)

AK or AQ with one spade - with this hand he might feel that the only way to win the pot is to persue his bluff and 3rd barrel the river (less likely) and could align with the betting to date

AK or AQ with two spades - betting the river makes sense as he has just been value betting every street

Or a complete bluff with any 2 cards (e.g. 77 with one spade), you can never rule it out - happens in poker completely unexpectedly from time to time lol guess that is what makes it an interesting game.

TT QQ KK AA I think he would check-call or do a smaller bet on the river.

Being a donk I would probably call the river bet after I have persued the hand thus far, because the way I (I mean..."we") played the hand looks very much like we have been persuing a flush draw and will fold to a river bet with only our missed draw in hand (why value bet into someone who has a missed draw on the river?)....If reraising had occured on the flop or turn and he had called and then bet out the river, I would consider it very differently and most likely fold to the river bet.

Hope there is some sense in there!