Hand Discussion 1 "Should I have folded pre?"

I wrote quite a few detailed responses on the Pokerisk forum to hands people had posted and asked for input on.

Seeing as I wouldn't mind keeping a record of them for myself (hey its my work!) and they are pretty interesting hands I decided to copy a few onto the blog...needs an update anyway

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"Should I have folded pre?"
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $5,000(BB) On Game
SB ($156,794)
Hero ($194,622)
UTG ($94,435)
CO ($95,867)
BTN ($176,366)

Dealt to Hero : :

fold, CO raises to $12,500, BTN calls $12,500, fold, Hero raises to $37,000, fold, BTN calls $24,500

FLOP ($91,500) : : :

Hero bets $45,250, BTN raises to $138,866 (AI), Hero folds

BTN wins $182,000


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My response:

I don't think you can ever fold preflop without some sort of amazing read on the players (like if their stats were 0/0/50 then you could fold).

I am less against flat shoving preflop, however it is a bit of an overshove - granted at this time you feel you have the best hand so it could be considered an over value bet....there is a slight chance the button did slowplay aa kk qq jj tt 99 in which case he stacks you and that could be considered an unnecessary exit to the tournament

My preference though is to, as you did, 3 bet preflop. I think your bet size was good - maybe a little on the short side, going a little bit bigger like 40-45k might be better as that makes it easier for you to call the original raiser if he does choose to shove (as he had about 95k total), and charges that little bit extra for your opponents to play you when your out of position.

If the button re-shoved after this 3 bet, you have a very tough decision and I think you would have to go with your instinct....I'd probably tell myself I should fold and either; timeout, or call at the last second then be bitter when he turns over TT

Back to hand:

After you 3bet, the original raiser folds and the button calls, which means he must have a reasonably good holding to stick around in a 3 bet pot, even when short handed and with position. Your getting quite late into the tournament, so you'd expect people to be less inclined to fish here with weak holdings (i.e. he has called twice preflop now and not raised, I'm assuming its late in the tournament going by the blinds).

The flop, QT5 with a flush draw, is very ugly for 88, and worse still connects with a big range of hands that he could have called your 3 bet with.

Further to this there is a lot of draws he may be willing to persue all in with, such as a flush or straight draw.

Seeing as he had 2 chances to raise preflop and just called both times, we can assume he doesn't have a monster hand such as a AA KK QQ AK AQ - as it is shorthanded you could probably add a few more hands to that list but for now and simplicity's sake lets just keep it as it.

So his possible holdings are (with or without flush draw):
AJ, AT
KQ, KJ, KT
QJ, QT,
JT, J9
T9
98 97
87
JJ TT 99 88(unlikely) 77 66 55

In my opinion.

After reviewing that list and the QT5 flop with a flush draw, it's obvious that he connects in someway with nearly all of the potential holdings.

By betting out 45k when he has 130k (and you 150k) behind, you leave plenty of margin for him to re-raise all in believing their is a high chance you will fold, which he would do with a big portion of the hands from the list I have put him on.

So I don't like this c-bet at all - I think there is not enough hands you are potentially ahead of that he will fold (it's certainly not a value bet, it is basically a bluff)

Therefore I feel here you should either:

1) Shove All In or check raise all in
Preferrably straight up shove all in as he may feel committed to the pot after betting.

This gives no information away on your hand and gives him a very tough decision.
Like I just stated above, this shove turns your hand into a complete bluff (granted the pot, is big so the rewards are high). It is very unlikely he will call with a weaker hand than 88 (even for example KJ suited is marginally ahead of 88 here), but is a very hard bluff to call as AQ AA KK would take the same line.

2) Check fold
Considered nitty, but you re-raised pre because you felt you had the best, and now that the flop has hit, it is most likely you don't have the best hand....the pot is very expensive due to the preflop action so cutting your losses here and check folding is a viable option

Being a nit, I would go for the check fold option - I think there are too many hands he would call on the flop and too many scenarios where you would be behind...not worth losing the whole game on. Just a unlucky flop if u ask me!

As always though, your image at the table and your opponents playing style should impact your decision (e.g. if they are super loose I would check fold the flop, if they are super tight I would shove)